برآورد افزایش بالقوه امید به زندگی با حذف هر یک از علل مرگ و میر در ایران در سال 1389

Background and purpose: Mortality is a natural and critical event and always has been intentioned ‎as a biological, demographic, social and economic phenomenon. One of the dimensions of mortality reviewing ‎is checking causes of death and determining life expectancy. Some causes of death lead to severe reduction in ‎life expectancy. In this survey, the value of gain in life expectancy of 28 provinces in Iran was estimated after ‎elimination of each death cause.‎ Materials and methods: This study was based upon number of deaths in 2010 in Iran except two ‎Tehran and Isfahan Provinces which was prepared by the ministry of health, treatment and medical education.‎ Results: The importance of causes of death was determined using multiple decrement life tables which ‎are based on theory of competing risks and effect of cause elimination on the gain in life expectancy. All the ‎calculations in this survey were done by SAS version 9.1. Unintentional injuries and cardiovascular diseases ‎were the most important risks for men. Elimination of unintentional injuries and cardiovascular diseases lead ‎to 2.17 and 1.23 years gain in life expectancy at birth for men. And for women, cardiovascular diseases were ‎the most important risks so that elimination of the risks leads to 1.23 years gain in life expectancy at birth‏.‏ Conclusion: Gain in life expectancy was different for causes of death and age groups. Elimination of ‎cardiovascular diseases and events leads to most years gain in life expectancy.‎